5 key factors determining Georgia’s Senate runoff

Georgians will decide on Tuesday whether Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock or Republican nominee Herschel Walker, a retired football star, will represent them in the Senate next year.

The tail end of the midterm elections ended in a bitter, month-long runoff in which Democrats spent almost twice as much as Republicans

But money can only get you so far in politics. Here are five key factors that help determine the winner.

Early voting clearly favors Mr. Warnock. Georgia does not track the party affiliation of early voters, but exit polls show overwhelming support for Trump among black voters. In November, Warnock’s eight voters accounted for about a third of the total early votes in the runoff, a higher share than in previous Georgia runoffs, according to the secretary of state’s office. Women who are also on the side of Mr. Warnock cast about 56 per cent of the vote last month. Gen Z voters — the 18- to 24-year-olds who broke liberalism — went strong.

Democracy modelers think Mr. Warnock enters election day with a lead of about 8 percentage points. If so, they said, Republicans would have to make a big move and pick up about 60 percent of the vote that went to Trump on Tuesday. Walker pulled one back.

More bad news for Mr. Walker: Rain is forecast for Tuesday, especially in Republican-majority North Georgia.

A motivated voter won’t let cold, muddy days keep them from turning out, but Georgians are showing signs of fatigue. A brutal primary season in the spring has pitted Donald J. Trump’s Republican faction against Georgia Republicans who support Gov. Brian Kemp. Trump’s slander. The fall brought a tough general election for governor and the Senate, and runoffs have now filled the airwaves with offensive ads.

A heavy rain in December could make Tuesday’s vote even tougher.

When Mr Trump patted Mr. Walker, his nominee, sees the former Heisman Trophy winner, who led the University of Georgia to a national championship in 1980, as having obvious appeal to black voters, who turned against Trump two years ago. influences. Warnock is the pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta.

This turned out to be a wrong estimate. But many black men also didn’t like a black woman Stacey Abrams’ rematch with Mr. Kemp is running for governor. gentlemen. Kemp won comfortably in November with 53 percent of the vote, although Warnock cleared almost 50 percent, partly because some blacks voted for Mr. Kemp and Mr Warnock.

On Tuesday, another black male voter will be in the spotlight, the one Trump shut out. Abrams said he did not make an appearance in November. 8. According to GeorgiaVotes.com, a website that uses public data to analyze voting trends, more than 76,000 voters who had already cast their runoff ballots did not vote in the general election. This can be a sign of a vibrant black male.

Governor Kemp received 2.1 million votes in November, surpassing Trump. Walker’s total exceeds 200,000. And Mr Warnock outnumbered Ms by 1.9 million votes. Abrams’ total is more than 130,000.

Apparently, a large number of Georgians voted for both gentlemen. Kemp, Republicans, and Mr. Warnock, Democrat.

One question on Tuesday was whether voters who came out to re-elect Mr Trump would. Kemp, perhaps barely voting for re-election Mr. Warnock, will appear again, only for Mr. Warnock.

A bigger question may be inference: Will Republican voters who voted for Trump last November vote for Trump? Kemp, and voted directly for Republicans, including Mr. Walker, out again?

gentlemen. Walker has proven to be a deeply flawed candidate. Even before primary voters chose him in May, he was accused of domestic violence and stalking by his ex-wife, ex-girlfriend and Dallas Cowboys cheerleader. Since then, he has had to bear the responsibility of having children out of wedlock. His son Christian Walker has publicly accused him of negligence and violence. Two women said, sir. Walker, who calls himself a devout anti-abortion Christian, urges abortion.

gentlemen. Kemp’s popularity helped Mr. Walker won 48.5 percent of the vote last month. Tuesday, sir. Walker is going to have to do better than that, and without the governor’s tailwinds.

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